The End of Oil, the End of Civilization?
Report Topics:
- The global peak of oil production is now past—the major world producers can only begin pumping less and less
- As oil begins to dwindle in supply, major violent changes in Middle Eastern politics are portended
- Existing oil reserves will become targets of seizure by major world powers as supplies continue to disappear
- Our modern culture and technology has been dependent on petroleum for nearly two centuries—what will the world be like without it?
Full Report:
There are a number of modern economists who believe that, during the early stages of the Industrial Revolution two and a half centuries ago, our civilization took a wrong turn down a dead-end street when we adopted fossil fuels as our main power source. Today, all of our technology, industry, commercial production, energy needs, distribution, communications, transportation, agriculture and even our entire labor and social structures are firmly based on a petroleum foundation. The problem is, fossil fuels are a finite resource. Our world civilization continues to expand as we use up ever-increasing amounts of petroleum to power our machines, like there was no tomorrow. But there is a tomorrow, because that very basis on which everything runs is not renewable. When the oil is gone, all the machines will stop.
At this present time we have no viable alternate source to replace oil, by which we will be able to maintain the standard of living using oil we have gotten used to. In time, perhaps, something eventually will be developed—hydrogen, ethanol, solar, a better form of nuclear energy are some of the proposed substitutes. But to develop any of these, and then to create a production and distribution system, plus to create and distribute an actual working engine or battery that utilizes any of these sources on a practical everyday level, will take a fair amount of time. Long before that time arrives, we are fast heading for a fall-off point in global oil production that will leave us in a major lurch.
According to oil analysts M. King Hubbert, Kenneth Deffeyes, Colin J. Campbell and Albert Bartlett, we have just now, within the first decade of the twenty-first century, passed the global production peak for oil. What this means is that the highest rate of world-wide annual production has come and gone, with any subsequent rate slowly decreasing toward depletion.
Another way of defining this is, over half the oil reserves for the planet have been used up, and all future production will be increasingly harder and more costly because the oil will be deeper and more difficult to access. The latest geological estimate is that the Earth of only two centuries ago held about two trillion barrels of liquid petroleum. We have now used up half of this. And with present consumption at 27 billion barrels a year and steadily growing with population expansion and further industrial development (particularly by China and India), the analysts give the world reserved until 2045 before they disappear.
Actually, the time limitations are much less than this, because long before the last drop is squeezed out of the ground, the increasing costs of pumping the oil will become prohibitive. When the energy used to pump petroleum costs the same as the oil itself, production will come to a halt. The estimate of when this threshold will be crossed is much sooner, very likely before 2025.
Already, the Energy Institute of London recently reported that world production has been declining by about 1.25 million barrels a day as a result of gradual depletions showing up among twenty-seven oil-producing nations, all of whom have long passed their own individual production peaks. This is the real reason the world price per barrel of oil has been slowly but steadily rising, as have gasoline and heating oil prices.
The International Energy Agency warned that by 2012 there will be “a world-wide oil and gas crunch” if present rates of demand remain as high as they have been. This complements a 2007 oil market report by the 26-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development which concludes, “Not only does oil look extremely tight in five years’ time, but this coincides with the prospect of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade.”
The latest prediction is that in the next few years the price of oil will skyrocket to over $100 per barrel.
We are now entering a difficult period when world demand will exceed world capacity to produce oil, with the gap between the two ever-widening with each passing year. Not just the economic implications, but the political ramifications are already starting to become apparent. More than 60 percent of the world’s remaining oil is underneath the Middle East. The United States possesses only 3 percent of global oil, and because it passed its own production peak in 1970, its present production levels are only half of what they were then. Yet the U.S. uses 25 percent of world daily petroleum, with an industrial and commercial appetite that shows no sign of letting up.
Unfortunately, because of a long line of American diplomatic and military misadventures in the Middle East, the U.S. has made a growing number of enemies in this region of the world, and it would take only a few unfortunate “alterations” among the few Arab allies we still have to drastically change America’s access to Middle Eastern oil supplies. These might include:
*The death or overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak and the transformation of Egypt into an Islamic Republic. The loss of Egypt as an important Western ally, especially the only Arab nation that maintains peace accords with Israel, would be a major blow to the balance of power in the region.
*The economic and political collapse of the ruling family of al-Saud in Arabia, whose oil fields hold 25 percent of the Middle East petroleum reserves. There are indications that these sources have already passed their production peak, and because the Saudis have squandered their wealth on maintaining a fabulously rich lifestyle for themselves, little is left over to begin paying for the spiraling costs of extracting the deeper oil pockets that remain.
There is also the added pressure of Arabia having been the home of the prophet Mohammed and possessing the two most holy cities in Islam, Mecca and Medina. Islamic fundamentalists have decried the fact that the Saudi family has been so friendly with the Great Satan, America, to the point of allowing U.S. military personnel on its sacred soil. There have already been a number of failed attempts to sabotage Arabia’s pipeline and refinery facilities by Islamic extremists, and if any of these should finally succeed, the disastrous loss of revenue could precipitate the Saudi’s fall from power and loss of their stranglehold on Arabian oil reserves. The succeeding new government may be far more belligerent toward American business interests and could cut off the flow of petroleum, selling it instead to other world competitors such as China, India or Russia. If America is then forced to buy oil from a third party, the price per barrel could easily triple or quadruple overnight. Regardless of what happens, however, Arabia’s oil reserves are projected to last for only the next fifty years.
*If the Saudis are ousted, then it would only be a matter of time before Kuwait, Dubai and the Emirates would follow. Their continued support for hated America because of the financial gains they have made by selling their petroleum to the world’s greatest consumer is creating a seething political and religious unrest just below their façade of wealth and extravagant spending. Should that unrest blow up, more Persian Gulf oil reserves will be beyond America’s reach.
*The presence of U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan has little to do with the stated purpose of “democratizing” the region as it does with attempting to protect American oil interests. Iraq has the second largest oil supply after Arabia, and serves as an American foothold keeping in check Islamic fundamentalists in surrounding nations from gaining the upper hand. Afghanistan’s occupation helps support Pakistan’s pro-American government from being toppled and tempers that nation’s potential use of its nuclear arsenal, or its selling of nuclear arms to rogue terrorist groups and nations. And with American military forces in both Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran’s ambitions to become the chief power in the Middle East are threatened by a possible invasion on two fronts.
While the protection of oil supplies and the containment of anti-American sentiments have been the long term goals, in the short term the American presence in the Middl East has turned into a disaster. The growing religio-political civil war has proven to be very expensive, and with U.S. petroleum businesses caught in the crossfire, the ongoing sabotage of Iraq’s petroleum industry has taken its toll, with oil production steadily falling. The continued occupation of Iraq with ever-increasing numbers of U.S. military personnel and supplies has not stopped the insurgency, and is instead sowing the seeds for more homegrown and international acts of terrorism.
The same thing is happening in Afghanistan, where the once defeated Taliban are gaining strength from a populous sick of American and NATO troops who have done very little to improve their living conditions.
Fueling the situation is the rising discontent of the American public and Congress in continuing troop deployments in what is now seen as a hopeless cause, and it will be only a matter of time—if not by the Bush administration then certainly by whatever administration will be elected into office in 2008—before the American presence in the Middle East will come to an end. What is more, we will see a brief period of chaos and confusion throughout the region to be followed by a backlash of hatred toward America that will manifest in a cutting off of oil lasting until the oil runs out.
*The present wild card in the Middle East is Iran, which contains the fourth largest oil reserves. A number of quotations by this nation’s past and present religious and political leaders gives a taste of the Iranian mindset:
“Islam makes it incumbent on all adult males to prepare themselves for conquest of other countries so that the writ of Islam is obeyed in every country of the world.” Ayatollah Khomeini, 1948
“We know of no absolute value besides total submission to the will of the Almighty. People say: ‘Don’t lie!’ But the principle is different when we serve the will of Allah. He taught man to lie so that we can save ourselves at moments of difficulty and confuse our enemies. Should we remain truthful at the cost of defeat and danger to the Faith? We say not. People say: ‘Don’t kill!’ But the Almighty Himself taught us how to kill. Without such a skill man would have been wiped out long ago by the beasts. So shall we not kill when it is necessary for the triumph of the Faith? Deceit, trickery, conspiracy, cheating, stealing and killing are nothing but means. On their own they are neither good nor bad. For no deed is either good or bad, isolated from the intentions that motivated it.” Ayatollah Khomeini, 1987
“The application of an atomic bomb would not leave anything in Israel.” Former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani, 2001
“Our emphasis should be the struggle with the Great Satan (America) and Israel. This is our main agenda. It is not only important to us for tactical reasons, but for the greatness of Islam. Our main goal shall be to damage their economic structures and to damage their reputation and credibility. We shall concentrate on these two arch enemies of the Islamic faith (America and Israel). We must also strike at their internal peace and security. This is imperative. In this path we should be very careful, and very clever, in order not to leave any evidence behind that can impact on us negatively on us in the future. Again I emphasize, we should use our intelligence and internal security apparatus for this struggle and will coordinate with those foreign sources who share the same belief with us. These others should be centralized under the close supervision of our intelligence and security apparatus to be effective.” The present Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, 2001, just four months before 9/11
“Shi’ite Muslims believe that the Twelfth Imam, or Mahdi, the last in a line of saints descended from Ali (the son-in-law of Moahammed), the founder of our sect, vanished more than a thousand years ago. According to our beliefs, he went into a state of ‘occultation,’ like the sun being hidden behind the clouds. After a stormy period of wars, the clouds will part, and the sun (the Mahdi) will be revealed. We believe that when he is released from his imprisonment, the entire world will submit to Islam.” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 2003
“O mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the promised one (the Mahdi), that perfect human being, the one who will fill this world with Islamic justice and peace.
“We have had a revolution to achieve a lofty goal, on the basis of the Expectation of the Return. Our interpretation is that the hand of the Almighty Allah is putting every piece of the jigsaw puzzle of the future of the world in place, in line with the goals of Islam.” The new Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in a speech before the U.N. General Assembly, 2005
“Like it or not, the Zionist regime (Israel) is heading toward annihilation. Palestine will be freed soon.”
“Our dear Imam ordered that the occupying regime in Jerusalem (the Israeli government) must be wiped off the face of the earth. This is a very wise statement. The issue of Palestine is not one which we can comporise on.” Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, 2005
In response to the threat of Iran being on the verge of becoming a nuclear power and possessing its own nuclear arsenal, the Israeli leadership has responded with these words:
“Israel cannot accept a situation where Iran has nuclear arms. The issue is clear to us and we are making all necessary preparations to handle a situation of this kind.” Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, 2005
“I think the statement that was made today by the Iranian president should be a wake-up call to all of us around the world. We should do everything we can to stop him, and to stop the Iranian effort to develop a nuclear bomb.” Israeli Foreign Minister, Silvan Shalom, 2005
The threats made by Iran and its allied groups in the region such as Hezbollah and Hamas concerning the extermination of Israel, and the counter-threats made by Israel regarding its preparation for an attack against Iran‘s uranium refinery installations, is leading up to a literally explosive situation. Since America is the main backer of Israel, any aggressive move that Israel may make will reflect directly on the United States, and in retaliation we can all but expect a complete shutdown of oil coming out of the Middle East.
Complicating the world situation further, as global supplies dwindle America will have several competitors vying for what is left, some of which, if the prospects become desperate enough, could lead to open conflict. China, whose commercial industries are beginning to surpass that of the United States, is fast becoming a rival petroleum user. China has little oil of its own, so it must seek it elsewhere. Once the American military presence is forced to leave the Middle East region, China, which is geographically much closer, could fill the vacuum and enter into a protective relationship with one or more Persian Gulf nations, including an Arabia run by an Islamic theocracy. China has none of the religious stigma that the West has had in the age-old rivalry between Christendom and Islam that goes back to the Crusades. In fact, the historical humiliation the West once inflicted on the old Chinese Empire, as it bowed to the pressures of European colonialism and imperialism during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, is still fresh in the modern Chinese psyche. Because they share with the Arab world a common inbred historical hatred of the West, this could serve as a bonding agent for a future alliance between the Middle East and the Far East.
If the need for oil becomes even more desperate, China also has the option of turning to the Central Asian republics. At the present time, Russia still has a major influence over its former Soviet possessions and is supplying aid in developing their petroleum reserves, while the United States has “advisors” and “anti-terrorist” units strategically stationed in every one of these nations. But because the majority populations in the Central Asian republics are Islamic, their deeper allegiances are with the Middle East, and if China successfully enters into a major alliance with the Persian Gulf oil-producers, they might back any claim that China could make on their Central Asian neighbors, situated directly on their western borders.
Even more inviting, farther in the future, will be Russia’s oil fields in Siberia. If the political bonds which presently hold together Russia’s diverse federation of states were to fall apart, with Moscow losing central control, China may be tempted to go to war with a weakened Russia over Siberia’s oil and other mineral wealth. And if Siberia was successfully acquired by force, then the next step will be over the Arctic into Alaska and northern Canada, in a war with the Western Hemisphere.
Whatever future scenario works out, in every case America will have to face the day when its reliance on oil to run every aspect of its lifestyle will prove to be its ultimate detriment. And as petroleum supplies begin to run out world-wide, every one of the industrialized nations will be facing the same dilemmas. The whole structure of modern society will have to be completely changed. Here are just a few of the emergency situations that will have to be dealt with:
*Gasoline prices will skyrocket, and the costs of maintaining a family car or van using petroleum products will become prohibitive for the average household. Gasoline will eventually be rationed only for police and emergency vehicles.
*The everday luxury of living, working and shopping over long distances will come to an end. New social structures and livelihoods will have to be developed involving limited localized travel.
*The transportation of food and manufactured goods over long distances by truck, train and air will no longer be cost effective. Large store chains will go under. Locally grown agricultural products and hand-crafted merchandise that can be distributed over short distances will become the main staples of survival.
*Supplies of heating oil, natural gas and propane will dry up, and regions subjected to extreme cold that have relied on petroleum for warming houses and businesses will have to find non-petroleum sources in order to subsist. In those buildings where heat will not be forthcoming, water pipes will freeze and burst, ruining interiors and forcing occupants to abandon them.
*Petroleum is the basis for many chemical fertilizers, industrial chemicals, medicines and pharmaceuticals, as well as lubricants, plastics and synthetic materials. All these will eventually disappear, and alternate more natural forms will have to be turned to.
*Not many people are aware how much our generation of electricity, as well as our electronic technology including computers, relies on chemicals and components based on petroleum derivatives. As these elements run out, there will be major breakdowns in both local and national power grids, plus the loss of retrieval and dissemination of information by computer systems, affecting all business, banking, medical records, law enforcement and general communications.
*In hotter climes, petroleum-made chemicals have been the basis for air conditioners and refrigeration units. Without these, such desert resort locations such as Phoenix, Las Vegas and Reno will not be able to function.
*In the larger cities such as New York or Chicago, skyscrapers and other high-rise architecture will be a thing of the past, because without certain hydraulic lubricants elevators will not work.
*For the past half century our modern agriculture has depended on large-scale mechanized fertilizing, planting, watering and harvesting. But with no more petroleum, farm machinery will be useless. We may yet see a return to the horse-drawn plow and wagon within our lifetimes.
*The death of oil will also spell the death of our entire consumer culture. Mass production will be no more. International and national trade and distribution of merchandise will be only a memory. Marketing, advertizing, large inventories, large corporations, publishing, the postal system, airlines, interstate highways, railroads, mass communications, mass media, mass entertainment, national sports, national education systems, national political parties, even organized religion—all these will be things of the past.
*The loss of such a fundamental element of our modern economy as oil will very likely precipitate a collapse of the economy itself. Petroleum is a major pillar of the world’s stock markets, and once it breaks the rest of global stocks will also fall across the board. Major financial institutions will fail, banks will close and currencies will become worthless. The fine line between the status quo and chaos will be crossed, and what essentials and necessities for life can no longer be bought will instead be stolen at the point of a gun.
*While in most localities the transition from a petroleum to non-petroleum economy will be very difficult but not impossible, in others the social reaction will be more violent. Especially where law enforcement has broken down due to the lack of gasoline for police vehicles, armed urban and suburban mobs may raid adjacent neighborhoods seeking food and other goods. Stores and businesses containing items that could be negotiable for exchange will become prizes to fight over, carving up commercial districts into barricaded and fortified war zones. Large grocery chain stores still stocked with nonperishable foodstuffs could be taken over by gangs of live-in squatters, who will claim an aisle or two as theirs and barter with other squatters for the goods in their own occupied aisles.
*On a larger scale, local and even state or regional governments may be overthrown, as their continued functioning is overwhelmed by the new realities of a non-petroleum world. In trying to cope with the transformations, new leaders may come to the forefront with new more practical methods of survival that better fit the change of conditions.
There may be new social and economic experiments, some perhaps bizarre and impractical at first, but they will be part of a necessary transitional process which for some people in certain areas will mean the difference between life and death as they struggle to subsist in an energy-starved environment. We may see here and there a return to feudalism or tribalism, or the establishment of religious or cultist communes, or spiritual ashrams, or paramilitary encampments. In other places we could witness a return to the lifestyles of the early nineteenth century, with small social communities, nearby farms, small local businesses, sustainable limited energy sources such as water, wind and steam, and the use of horses and riverboats as the main forms of transportation.
Two groups that will serve as models well worth emulating will be the Amish and traditionalist Native Americans. The Amish long ago gave up dependence on any form of petroleum-based machinery or technology, yet possess a thriving and efficient lifestyle. Native Americans had a successful pre-industrial society millennia before the coming of Europeans to this continent, and still possess a rich heritage of living off the land. They will be the teachers for the rest of us as we enter the post-petroleum era.
[Copyright 2009. Joseph Robert Jochmans. All Rights Reserved.]
